The Commercial vehicle adoption growth is driven by factors such as the expansion of logistics, significant infrastructure investments, the rise of e-commerce fueling last-mile delivery, fleet replacement cycles, and the increasing adoption of electric commercial vehicles, all of which improve fleet productivity and align with government initiatives supporting sustainability. The Indonesian government’s focus on automotive development as a strategic industry under the GoI roadmap is expected to drive recovery, with a target of 2553.33 Billion vehicle production by 2032.
Commercial Vehicles Market Key Highlights
In 2025, ICE segment held the dominant position with a share of 68%. By 2032, the ICE segment is expected to be little bit outpaced by the expansion of green technologies during the forecast period, driven by the urgent need for sustainability and the shift towards electric mobility in the commercial sector.
In March 2025, domestic sales of new light commercial vehicles, bakkies, and minibuses in South Africa reached 13,328 units, marking an 8.4% decline from the 14,555 units sold in March 2024. The medium commercial vehicle segment also weakened, with 696 units sold, down 1.8% year-on-year, while heavy trucks and buses recorded 2,022 units, a slight 0.5% decrease compared to March 2024.
In 2025, the logistics and e-commerce sector commanded 38.13% of the total demand in the commercial vehicle market, reflecting the increasing reliance on last-mile delivery and global supply chains.
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Commercial Vehicles Market Size, By Vehicle Type (2025–2032)
Light Commercial Vehicles (LCVs) held the largest market share of over 35.75% in 2025, driven by e-commerce logistics, parcel delivery, and urban transportation, where flexibility, fuel efficiency, and low operating costs are critical. In terms of Light commercial vehicle propulsion, internal-combustion engine vehicles dominated in 2025 with 77.81% share, but electric variants are gaining traction with notable growth rates. Commercial delivery and logistics accounted for the majority share of applications in 2025, reflecting the impact of e-commerce on LCV demand, and fleet-owned vehicles represented over 75% of the market, indicating the strong preference among large operators for LCV assets.
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Commercial Vehicles Market Segment Covered
Segmentation Type | Segments |
By Vehicle Type | Light Commercial Vehicles (LCVs) Medium Commercial Vehicles Heavy Commercial Vehicles (HCVs) Electric Commercial Vehicles |
By Powertrain | Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) Vehicles Electric Vehicles (EVs) Hybrid Vehiclesri |
By End-User
| Passenger Transportation Logistics & Freight Transport Mining & Construction Industrial Others |
Global Commercial Vehicle Market Regional Analysis
Asia Pacific dominates the Commercial Vehicles Market Share with 46.20% in 2025, driven by the China Commercial Vehicles Market and rapid growth of the India Commercial Vehicles Market, supported by infrastructure development and logistics expansion.
In Europe, the commercial vehicle market faced a challenging first half of 2025, with declines in van, truck, and bus registrations due to fleet renewal issues and the shift to zero-emission powertrains. However, Spain showed resilience in van sales. Van production in Europe fell by 6.8%, while truck and bus production are expected to recover by 5.7% and 6.2%, respectively.
In India, the commercial vehicle segment saw remarkable performance in 2025, achieving its, with 2.90 lakh units sold in Q3 period, reflecting a 21.5% growth compared to the same period in 2024-25. Similarly, the January to December 2025 period recorded a 7.7% increase, reaching 10.28 lakh units, driven by continued demand for freight transportation and logistics solutions.
Risk Analysis – Commercial Vehicles
Risk Category | North America | Europe | Asia Pacific | Middle East & Africa | South America |
Supply Chain Disruptions | Medium | Medium | High | Medium | High |
Fuel Price Volatility | Medium | Medium | High | High | High |
Regulatory & Emission Compliance | Medium | High | Medium | Low | Medium |
Import-Export Dependency | Low | Medium | High | High | High |
EV Infrastructure Readiness | Medium | Medium | Medium | Medium | High |
The Commercial Vehicles Market Forecast faces risks from fuel price volatility, regulatory compliance costs, and supply chain disruptions. However, strong demand from logistics, infrastructure, public transportation, and electrification provides long-term market stability.
Competitive Analysis of the Commercial Vehicle Manufacturers
In 2025, Daimler Truck AG, Traton SE, and Tata Motors continue to dominate the global commercial vehicle market, with Daimler leading in heavy-duty trucks and Traton capturing a significant share through its brands like MAN and Scania. Tata Motors holds a strong position in India, particularly in light commercial vehicles (LCVs), while Ashok Leyland remains a key player in both medium and heavy-duty truck segments in India.
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